We publish what we find, before we are asked to.

The Kenyatta Administration, 1963–1978

The volume that fixed the instrument. It scores the executive government from 12 December 1963 to 22 August 1978 across twenty-three distinct upstream provenance chains, drawing on a truth commission, a public land commission, a parliamentary select committee, a national statistical series and a peer-reviewed economic literature.

The material record is strong and not in dispute: life expectancy rose from 50.8 to 58.2 years, infant mortality fell from 100.7 to 72.5 per 1,000 live births, primary gross enrolment moved from 60.3 per cent in 1970 to 95.6 per cent in 1978, and real GDP compounded at 6.80 per cent a year. The Safeguarding Veto fired all the same, and the report leads with that. Four rival explanations for the growth survive testing, so the evaluation says the evidence supports and declines to say caused.

The Moi Administration, 1978–2002

The lowest composite in the series, resting on the highest evidence rating in it. The period was examined by a judicial commission into Goldenberg, a judicial commission into the ethnic clashes, a parliamentary select committee, a public land commission, a truth commission, and a household survey programme with no equivalent under the previous administration. The weak result rests on the stronger record.

Real GDP per capita compounded at minus 0.11 per cent a year across 1979 to 2002. Child survival improved while adult life expectancy fell. Against that, the administration legislated a two-term limit in 1992, was bound by it in 2002, lost decisively and handed power to the opposition, the first such transfer in the country’s history.

The Kibaki Administration, 2002–2013

The highest arithmetic result in the series, and the first volume in which the Safeguarding Veto changes the published verdict rather than restating a band the arithmetic had already reached. That the cap is decisive here is itself recorded as a finding.

The material record is the strongest in the series: life expectancy recovered the entire loss of the preceding twenty-four years, under-five mortality fell 40.8 per cent, primary enrolment rose 22.2 points after fee abolition, and HIV prevalence fell from 7.8 to 5.2 per cent. The 2010 Constitution, approved by roughly 67 per cent of voters, is assessed as the single largest positive institutional change in the fifty years the series covers to that point.

The Uhuru Kenyatta Administration, 2013–2022

The first evaluand in the series scored against a constitution its predecessor created rather than one inherited from the colonial settlement, which makes every finding here also a finding about how the 2010 Constitution performed under sustained pressure from the executive it was designed to constrain.

Access to electricity rose from 40.1 to 76.0 per cent of the population, the largest single infrastructure movement in the series, and measured inequality fell for the first time. Public debt rose from about KSh 1.79 trillion to about KSh 8.7 trillion over the same period, and debt service as a share of exports moved from 4.7 per cent in 2013 to 38.4 per cent in 2019. PILI scores 52.00, the first pillar score above 50 in four administrations.

From Revenue Rage to Fiscal Reckoning

A policy analysis of revenue mobilisation, expenditure credibility, and macroeconomic constraint. The paper makes a simple argument: public debate is over-concentrated on one instrument when three should be in view. The Finance Bill is a revenue tool, not the fiscal system itself; it sits downstream of the Budget Policy Statement, the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, and sector ceilings set months earlier.

Debt service absorbed about 69 per cent of ordinary revenue in FY 2024/25, several times above the IMF Debt Sustainability Framework thresholds for low-income countries, which range from 14 to 23 per cent. At the margin, new revenue is servicing debt rather than expanding productive capital. The analysis closes with targeted recommendations for Treasury, Parliament, the Controller of Budget, civic actors, development partners, and the Central Bank.

Kenya NIF: What the Evidence Shows

The first independent evaluation of the National Infrastructure Fund, completed on the day the Act was signed into law. Scores the Fund at 53 out of 100 on the SSII instrument, sets out where the design is strong and where it leaks, and introduces an SROI tracking architecture that did not previously exist in the Kenyan policy debate on the Fund.

The INGO Reckoning: A Post-Trump Adaptation. Save Lives or Shape Out

A critical policy review of humanitarian actor strategies at the convergence of conflict, climate, and compounding crisis. Its position statement is blunt: the international humanitarian system is at a reckoning that is not merely a funding crisis, and not merely a political rupture, but a structural failure. Written for INGO leadership teams deciding what their organisation is actually for in the next funding era.

The Aesthetics Trap: Why the Gen-Z Entrepreneurial Ethic Is a Structural Risk to Real Growth in Emerging Economies

A Kenya case study. Kenya’s Gen-Z cohort is the most digitally native generation in the country’s history, and potentially its most economically misaligned. The thesis argues that a dominant entrepreneurial ethic anchored on social media virality, platform aesthetics, TikTok commerce, and influencer identity carries consequences for productive capacity that the growth statistics have not yet caught up with.