COUNTRY DEBT LABORATORY
Debt, assumptions
and the path ahead.
A common scenario model for every country in Economic Pulse.
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Country evidence
Central-government debt is not necessarily total public-sector debt. Source coverage and observation periods must match your question. Consumer inflation is not used as the GDP deflator.
Historical growth and deflator rates become forward assumptions only if you choose to use them. Missing debt, creditor holdings, maturity schedules and currency composition are not replaced with Kenya data.
Build the scenario
Starter rates, currency share and fiscal settings below are common illustrative assumptions, not statistics for the selected country. Supply an opening debt ratio and identify its coverage. All inputs remain editable. Switching country preserves separate drafts where browser storage is available.
First projected-year debt change
The comparison removes only FX and rate shocks, retaining your other inputs. Nominal debt / GDP is not assessed against a present-value threshold.
Model method and limits
Debt evolves from opening stock, effective interest, the foreign-currency share, a one-off first-year FX shock, real growth, GDP deflator growth, primary balance and other debt-creating flows. The debt stock is floored at zero, with the adjustment disclosed. The foreign-currency share is rebalanced annually and the rate shock persists.
Countries share the equation, not the observations or portfolio structure. Maturity schedules, refinancing constraints, institutional coverage changes, creditor reactions and distributional effects are not modelled. Detailed creditor and auction breakdowns require country-specific sources and are not inferred from aggregate debt. This is desktop analysis, not an official debt sustainability assessment.